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Net Effects of the Trump Proposal for Undergraduate Students

Net Effects of the Trump Proposal for Undergraduate Students

In early 2010, President Obama proposed that Congress change the payments in IBR from 15 percent to 10 percent of a borrower’s income and move loan forgiveness to 20 years of payments instead of 25 years. 15 The proposal left all other parts of the original 2007 version of IBR intact. Congress enacted the proposal in 2010, but delayed the start date until . 16 Only new borrowers as of that date could receive the more generous terms. This paper refers to this plan as the current IBR program. President Obama later took executive actions to expand these terms to borrowers with loans from earlier periods. 17

Lawmakers and those in the policy community who supported the changes did not lay out a rationale for why the original 2007 version of IBR, which had only just become available, was insufficient. Their justification was simply that more generous terms would make college and student loans more affordable. 18

In 2012, we compared how much hypothetical borrowers would repay on their loans under the original 2007 version of IBR and the new Obama administration plan. 19 This descriptive analysis illustrated how the changes provide the largest benefits to students who borrowed for graduate school, and that these borrowers need not earn a low income to have significant debt forgiven. The effects were, however, muted for undergraduates because they ounts and are therefore more likely to repay all or most of their balances before either the 25-year or the 20-year loan forgiveness mark unless they consistently earn low incomes during repayment. 20

Trump Fiscal Year 2018 Budget Proposal

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President Trump proposed his own set of reforms to the student loan program in his fiscal year 2018 budget request to Congress, including major changes to IBR that would apply to new borrowers. 21 The proposal increases monthly payments to 12.5 percent of discretionary income, the midpoint between the original 2007 version of IBR and the current IBR program; it lengthens the loan forgiveness ount of debt from graduate school to 30 years, but shortens the term to 15 years for borrowers with only debt from undergraduate studies; it abolishes the additional repayment cap set to a borrower’s 10-year payment schedule (a borrower can still switch into a 10-year repayment plan at any point, but would lose eligibility for loan forgiveness).

Although they are somewhat separate from the changes to IBR, the proposal would eliminate Subsidized Stafford loans and Public Service Loan Forgiveness. Borrowers who lose eligibility for Subsidized Stafford loans can still borrow the same amounts through Unsubsidized Stafford loans; there is no net reduction in the amount students can borrow as a result of that change. We exclude changes to the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program in our analysis.

Analyzing the effects of the Trump proposal for undergraduates is best done in three parts. First, we examine the elimination of Subsidized Stafford loans in isolation. Second, we look at the Trump IBR changes in isolation to illustrate how the 12.5 percent payment rate and the 15-year loan forgiveness term affect different categories of borrowers. Finally, we illustrate how the two policies combined affect borrowers.

Eliminating Subsidized Stafford Loans

Eliminating Subsidized Stafford loans has a straightforward effect on those who would lose the benefit. Students leave school with more debt, all else being equal, assuming they borrow Unsubsidized Stafford loans instead. On those loans, interest that accrues during the in-school period is added to the balance when a borrower leaves school. If a student had qualified for the maximum lifetime amount of $23,000 in Subsidized Stafford loans during a five-year enrollment period, losing this benefit means he would have about $3,600 more in debt due to the accrued interest while still in school. Assuming a borrower repays on the standard 10-year fixed payment schedule, he would make $33,856 in total payments over the repayment term without the benefit versus $29,274 with it. 22 This equates to an increase of $38 in the monthly payment.

Net Effects of the Trump Proposal for Undergraduate Students
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